Economic Evaluation of Biotechnological Progress: The effect of changing management behavior

The paper assesses the welfare effects of biotechnological progress, as exemplified by tree improvements, using a partial equilibrium model. Timber demand is assumed to be stochastic and the distributions of the coefficients of the demand function are known. Assuming that timber supply is a log-linear function of timber price and forest inventory, we determine the coefficients of the supply function by maximizing the expected present value of the total surplus of timber production, both in the presence and in the absence of genetically improved regeneration materials. The supply functions are then used to estimate the expected present values of the total surplus in different cases through simulation. These estimates enable us to assess the direct effect and the total effect of the genetically improved regeneration materials on the expected present value of the total surplus. By taking the difference between these two effects, we obtain an estimate of the effect of changing harvest behavior induced by the use of genetically improved regeneration materials in forestry. The main results of the study are (1) the presence of genetically improved regeneration materials has significant impacts on the aggregate timber supply function; (2) application of genetically improved regeneration materials leads to a significant increase in the expected present value of the total surplus; (3) a considerable proportion of the welfare gain results from the change in timber harvest behavior; and (4) the use of genetically improved regeneration materials reduces the profits of timber production.timber market model; tree improvement; optimal harvesting decision; timber supply

Scientific and Technological Developments as Drivers

Future Forest

Simulation of the effect of intensive forest management on forest production in Sweden

The effects of intensifying the management of 15% of the Swedish forest land on potential future forest production over a 100-year period were investigated in a simulation study. The intensive management treatments, which were introduced over a period of 50 years, were: intensive fertilization of Norway spruce (IntFert); bulking-up Norway spruce elite populations using somatic embryogenesis (SE-seedlings); planting of lodgepole pine, hybrid larch, and Sitka spruce (Contorta, Larch, and Sitka); fertilization with wood ash on peatlands (Wood ash); and conventional fertilization in mature forests (ConFert). Potential sites for applying intensive forest management (IFM) to sites with low nature conservation values were determined with a nature conservation score (NCS). Four different scenarios were simulated: “Base scenario”, which aimed at reducing the negative impact on nature conservation values, “Fast implementation”, “No IntFert” (IntFert was not used), and “Large Forest Companies”, where the majority of plots were selected on company land. Total yields during the 100-year simulation period were about 85–92% higher for the intensive forest management scenarios than for the reference scenario (business as usual). In the “No IntFert” scenario total production was 1.8% lower and in the “Large Forest Companies” scenario total production was 4.8% lower than in the “Base scenario”. “Fast implementation” of IFM increased yield by 15% compared to the “Base scenario”. Norway spruce SE-seedlings and IntFert gave the highest yields, measured as total production during the 100-year simulation period, but relative to the yields in the reference scenario, the highest increases in yield were for Contorta. The “Base scenario” and “No IntFert” gave the highest yields for plots with the lowest NCS, but plots with higher NCS had to be used in the “Fast implementation” and “Large Forest Companies” scenarios. More than half of the effect on future growth of IFM methods was because of increased intensity in the regenerations. It took a relatively long time (40–60 years) for the simulated IFM treatments to result in a significant increase in stem volume production

Estudio del efecto de viscocidad, osmolaridad, concentración de lecitina y perfluorocarbono en la estabilidad y eficacia de emulsiones transportadoras de oxígeno basadas en perfluorcarbono

IP 2239-04-16303Contrato 284-2004El objetivo de este proyecto fue el desarrollo de emulsiones de prefluorocarbono que transporten oxígeno de forma eficaz y segura en un modelo animal. El trabajo de dividio en dos partes: le primera comprendió el estudio sobre la formulación, la preparación y el seguimiento de las emulsiones, la segunda fue la evaluación de la eficacia y la seguridad de las emulsiones en un modelo de hemodilución normovolémica en animale

Perspectives on the Potential Contribution of Swedish Forests to Renewable Energy Targets in Europe

Forest biomass is an important energy source in Sweden and some other European countries. In this paper we estimate the physically available (i.e., total potential) forest biomass for energy from annual forest harvesting (1970–2008) or in the total standing stock (2008) in Sweden. To place Sweden’s forest resources into perspective we relate this to an estimated need for renewable energy sources in Europe. As Swedish forests supply a range of goods and ecosystem services, and as forest biomass is often bulky and expensive to procure, we also discuss issues that affect the amount of forest biomass that is actually available for energy production. We conclude that forests will contribute to Sweden’s renewable energy potential, but to a limited extent and expectations must be realistic and take techno-economical and environmental issues into consideration. To meet future energy needs in Sweden and Europe, a full suite of renewable energy resources will be needed, along with efficient conversion systems. A long-term sustainable supply of forest resources for energy and other uses can be obtained if future harvest levels are increased until they are equal to the annual growth increment. Delivering more than this would require increasing forest productivity through more intensive management. The new management regimes would have to begin now because it takes a long time to change annual production in temperate and boreal forests

Unequal deployment of clones to seed orchards by considering genetic gain, relatedness and gene diversity

Related clones in seed orchards lead to inbreeding depression and reduced genetic value of the seeds. This study aims to develop the methodology for deployment of related clones to seed orchards when the breeding value and the pedigree are available for each candidate. The following goals were considered: high genetic gain, high genetic gain adjusted for predicted inbreeding depression (net gain), high gene diversity, and high effective clone number. The selection strategies included truncation selection with or without relatedness restrictions, maximizing genetic gain (linear deployment) with or without restrictions on relatedness and maximizing net gain. The selection strategies were applied to Norway spruce seed orchard candidates evaluated in clonal tests. The material comprised full-sib and half-sib relationships. Comparisons were made both at the same gene diversity and at the effective clone number. Maximizing net gain by unequal ramet number deployment resulted in considerable higher net gain and a considerable reduction of related ramets in many comparisons. Linear deployment restricted against related clones compared at the same status number resulted in almost as high net gain. Reduction in gene diversity may be a more important reason to avoid relatives in seed orchards than the subsequent inbreeding for achieving a high net gainVytauto Didžiojo universitetasŽemės ūkio akademij

Profitability of measures to increase forest growth

The profitability of seven silvicultural measures to increase forest growth was examined for the forest company Holmen Skog in northern Sweden. The report rests on data from a recent Production Assessment where a wide range of measures to increase short and long term forest growth for the company were identified. The measures examined are the use of genetically improved materials, fertilisation, maintenance of ditches, improved seedling quality, treatment against beetles (Hylobius abietis L.) and introduction of lodgepole pine (Pinus contorta Dougl. ex Loud. var. latifolia Engelm). The majority of the silvicultural measures proved profitable. Changing species from Scots pine (Pinus sylvestris L.) to lodgepole pine and the use of genetically improved regeneration materials were found to be very profitable due to low investment costs and considerable increase of forest growth. Fertilisation proved highly profitable but the measure has a drawback of being expensive. However, fertilisation has an advantage of an earlier effect on timber harvest due to a short investment period. Linear programming was used to determine the optimal mix of measures with varying budgets. At present the company's silvicultural budget is around 100 million SEK annually. Increasing the silvicultural budget by 5 million SEK would result in an increase in net present value of almost 24.2 million SEK. This represents 48% of the increase of net present value if all the profitable measures are carried out.Optimisation Silviculture Timber production Genetically improved regeneration material Contorta Fertilisation Ditching

A new paradigm for adaptive management

Uncertainty is a pervasive feature in natural resource management. Adaptive management, an approach that focuses on identifying critical uncertainties to be reduced via diagnostic management experiments, is one favored approach for tackling this reality. While adaptive management is identified as a key method in the environmental management toolbox, there remains a lack of clarity over when its use is appropriate or feasible. Its implementation is often viewed as suitable only in a limited set of circumstances. Here we restructure some of the ideas supporting this view, and show why much of the pessimism around AM may be unwarranted. We present a new framework for deciding when AM is appropriate, feasible, and subsequently successful. We thus present a new paradigm for adaptive management that shows that there are no categorical limitations to its appropriate use, the boundaries of application being defined by problem conception and the resources available to managers. In doing so we also separate adaptive management as a management tool, from the burden of failures that result from the complex policy, social, and institutional environment within which management occurs.Future Forest